segunda-feira, outubro 30, 2006

Impacto económico do Aquecimento Global

O governo britânico elaborou um extenso e rigoroso relatório sobre o impacto do aquecimento global na economia mundial. As principais conclusões vêm ao encontro dos diversos alertas que já vinham sendo lançados por instituições como a NASA, o IPPC e a AEA:

"What are the costs of doing nothing?
We have to try to model the dangerous risks we have been discussing. We have to look out over 100-200 years when the big effects of our actions over the next 50 years will come through. When we do this in a way that averages across risks, time, and countries, we calculate that the damages from business-as-usual would be equivalent to at least 5 and up to 20% of consumption a year, depending on the types of risks and effects included. The first effects of climate change are already evident, but it is still some time before impacts and risks on this scale will appear. But given the lags, action to head off these risks is urgent.
"

"What are the costs and benefits of taking action?
The costs of removing most of that risk, getting to 550 or below, are around 1% of GDP per year. The cost could be above or below 1% depending on policies, technological progress and ambitions but would be in this region. This is equivalent to paying on average 1% more for what we buy - the price rise for carbon intensive goods would be higher and for low carbon intensive goods would be lower – it is like a one-off increase by 1% in the price level. That is manageable; we can grow and be green.
"

"The conclusion of the Review is essentially optimistic. There is still time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, if we act now and act internationally. Governments, businesses and individuals all need to work together to respond to the challenge. Strong, deliberate policy choices by governments are essential to motivate change.
But the task is urgent. Delaying action, even by a decade or two, will take us into dangerous territory. We must not let this window of opportunity close.
"

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